რატომ არ უნდა დაუშვას დასავლეთმა რუსეთის გამარჯვება

laSa xomeriki 593 50 82 69 –

asiaTasobiT daRupuli da daWrili, milionobiT ltolvili, ganadgurebuli qalaqebi da soflebi – es mciredi CamonaTvalia im siborotisa, rasac ruseTi ukrainaSi sCadis. . . ori welia, ruseT-ukrainis omi mimdinareobs da ukve garkveuli daskvnis gakeTeba SeiZleba. ukrainam SeZlo ara mxolod gamklaveboda rusul armias, aramed SeZlo okupirebuli teritoriebis dabrunebac. dasavleTis daxmareba da ukrainelTa Tavganwirva rom ara, kremli SeZlebda mTavari miznis (ukrainis srul okupacias) miRwevas. isic unda iTqvas, rom es omi SesaZloa kidev ramdenime weli mainc gagrZeldes. amJamad ra viTarebaa omis frontze, ramdenad dainteresebulia dasavleTi ruseTis realuri marcxiT, ras unda velodoT samomavlod? am sakiTxebze gvesaubreba saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis specialisti, saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa institutis (jipa-s) profesori giorgi koberiZe.
– batono giorgi, TiTqmis ori welia, ukrainaSi omi mimdinareobs, ra cxadyo man?
– ganvlilma orma welma gamoavlina sami ram: 1. ruseTis armiis brZolis velze damarcxeba SesaZlebelia; 2. dasavleTis gadaRla da gamofitva ver moxda. piriqiT, miviReT politikurad gamoRviZebuli dasavleTi, romelic aqcents gadaiaraRebaze akeTebs, rac omamde meorexarisxovani iyo; 3. avtokratiuli reJimebi erT, myar banakad Camoyalibdnen – ruseTi, CineTi, CrdiloeT korea da irani am RerZis birTvs qmnian. maTTvis TiToeuli wevris warmateba an warumatebloba mniSvnelovania, magram, rogorc wesi, avtokratiebi Rirebulebebisagan daclil Zalas qmnian, mxolod moklevadiani interesebiT moqmedeben da saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi erTmaneTsac gaswiraven, magram am etapze saerTo mtris – dasavleTis irgvliv arian gaerTianebulni.
– samwuxarod, ukrainis kontrSetevam, garkveulwilad, fiasko ganicada, amas aRniSnaven samxedro eqspertebi, Tqven ras fiqrobT?
– ukrainulma Setevam mxolod minimaluri warmateba moitana, Tumca iseTi dasaxlebisaTvis rogoric velika novosilkaa doneckis olqSi, didi Sveba gamodga ukrainuli ieriSi, romelmac mas rusuli armiis naxevarrkaliseburi alya mouxsna da samxreTiT kidev 5 dasaxlebis gaTavisufleba moxerxda. zaporiJias olqSi ukrainelebma SeZles robotinesa da lobkoves gaTavisufleba. robotineze rusuli Tavdacvis xazi gadioda. ufro mniSvnelovani isaa, rom ukrainelebma mdinare dnepri gadalaxes da erTis mxriv daCebis teritoria daikaves, xolo meore mxriv, mdinaris meore mxares, urTules reliefur pirobebSi, placdarmi Seqmnes krinkisTan, sadac sabrZolo moqmedebebi axlac grZeldeba. cxadia, es yvelaferi lokaluri warmatebaa da strategiul winsvlas ar moaswavebs. logikuria, rom ukrainelebma daskvnebi unda gamoitanon. pirvel rigSi ki is, rom rusebi sabWoTa meTodebiT moqmedeben da aqcents cocxali Zalis raodenobaze akeTeben.
– sahaero mxardaWeris gareSe kontrSeteva ramdenad gamarTlebuli iyo da am mxriv, F-16-is gadmocema ramdenad mniSvnelovania okupirebuli teritoriebis deokupaciis TvalsazrisiT?
– ukrainelebs sWirdebodaT, eCvenebinaT dasavleTisaTvis da sakuTari mosaxleobisTvis, rom frontis xazi ar iyo gayinuli da baxmutis aRebis miuxedavad, iniciativa kvlav ukrainelTa xelSi iyo. amitomac hqonda am kontrSetevas ara mxolod samxedro, aramed saerTaSoriso politikuri mniSvnelobac ki. am yvelaferma bevri sxva ramac gamoaCina, pirvel rigSi ki is, rom ukrainas TavdacvisaTvis SeiZleba sakmaod bevri iaraRi aqvs, magram SeteviTi potencialisaTvis kidev ufro meti sWirdeba.
– poziciuri omi ra safrTxes Seicavs ukrainisTvis?
– samxedro TvalsazrisiT, vxedavT, rom ruseTi cdilobs aqtiuri samxedro poziciis SenarCunebas da poziciuri omebis pirobebSic ki iniciativis qonas, es ki maTi mxridan mzard danakargs ganapirobebs xolme. axla, doneckis olqis qalaq avdiivkaze Sturmisa, rusebis mxridan kolosalur danakargs vadevnebT Tvals. realisturi monacemebiT, oqtombridan dRemde 20 aTasze met moklulzea saubari, rac gamorCeulad didi cifria. imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom ukrainelebi avdiivkas dacvas 2014 wlidan ewevian da kargad aqvT is fortificirebuli, maTi danakargi bevrad naklebia. rogorc wesi, xuTjer naklebia xolme. cxadia, am cifrebSi daSavebulebsa da daWrilebze ver visaubrebT.
– `amerikis mier ukrainisTvis gamoyofili daxmareba mxolod gadarCenisTvis iyo sakmarisi da ara gamarjvebisTvis~, – ganacxada evropaSi aSS–is saxmeleTo jarebis yofilma meTaurma, generalma ben hojesma, es risi maniSnebelia?
– es Ria mowodebaa dasavleTisadmi, rom ukrainis gamarjvebas meti resursebis mobilizeba sWirdeba. saubari araa mxolod finansebze, aramed iaraRzec. koleqtiuri usafrTxoeba Zalian kargi ramaa, radgan yvelam is unda gaiRos saerTo mokavSiris dasacavad, rac aqvs, magram rodesac am koleqtiuri usafrTxoebis miRma sxva, arawevri saxelmwifos iaraRiT aRWurvaze midgeba xolme saqme, situacia rTuldeba, radgan am SemTxvevaSi yvelas cot-cota aqvs da am mcire raodenobis iaraRis gadacemiT frontis xazze iaraRis sinqronizacia ar xdeba da gansxvavebuli tipis iaraRis aTvisebac Sesabamisad Wirs xolme. amitomaa axla mniSvnelovani, rom aSS-ma da didma evropelma mwarmoeblebma aiRon Tavis Tavze ukrainis masobrivi SeiaraReba msgavsi iaraRiT.
– dasavleli liderebi amboben, rom ar dauSveben ukrainis damarcxebas, magram ramdenadaa dainteresebuli dasavleTi ruseTis realuri marcxiT, anu maTTvis ruseTis marcxi ra zRvarze gadis?
– ruseTis nebismieri formiT gamarjveba dasavleTis usafrTxoebas Zalian saSiS precedents uqadis. dasavleTs akvirdeba CineTic, iranica da sxva avtokratiuli reJimebic. Tuki dasavleTma raime dauTmo ruseTs, miviRebT axal omebs sxvagan. arc isaa gamoricxuli, dasavleTis gadaRlilobaSi darwmunebulma ruseTma axali avantiurebi wamoiwyos evropis sxva mimarTulebiT, pirvel rigSi ki baltiis sam saxelmwifosTan mimarTebiT. amasTan, misi agresiis msxverpli belarusi an yazaxeTi rom gaxdes, arc es unda gagvikvirdes. Zalian saSiSi precedenti iqneba es CvenTvisac. amitom saeWvoa, dasavleTma raime dauTmos ruseTs. axlandeli realoba dasavleTisaTvis sargebliania – ruseTi ukrainaSi WaobSia Cafluli, xolo dasavleTs drois mogebisa da gadaiaraRebisaTvis axali SesaZlebloba daudga.
– ukrainisTvis daaxloebiT 300 milioni dolaris gadacema Sida dapirispirebis mizezi gaxda aSS-is kongresSi, ra SeiZleba iTqvas am mxriv?
– realurad, saubaria 60 miliardze meti dolaris daxmarebaze. aSS-is Sida krizisi ukrainis gamo ar dawyebula, es erTi, Zalian mcire nawilia partiebs Soris didi dapirispirebisa. axla is mdgomareobaa, rodesac respublikelebi demokratebis yvela aqtivobas akritikeben da piriqiT, demokratebi -respublikelebisas. saarCevno welia da krizisi rom gagrZeldes, gamoricxuli ar aris.
– am bolo dros safrangeTi, aseve didi britaneTi da germania aqtiurad exmarebian ukrainas SeiaraRebiT, rogorc Cans, es saxelmwifoebi acnobiereben ruseTidan momaval safrTxes?
– omi evropis kontinentze mimdinareobs. erTi saxelmwifos imedad aravin unda iyos, sariskoa, sxva Tu araferi. Sesabamisad, mxolod aSS-is imedad yofna yovelTvis Secdoma iyo, miT umetes germaniasac da did britaneTsac samxedro industriuli SesaZleblobebi sakmaod didi hqondaT da axlac asea.
– ra aris ukrainisTvis da ruseTisTvis maqsimumi da minimumi am omSi?
– ukrainam, pirvel rigSi, unda SeZlos iniciativis myarad dabruneba. yirimis administraciul sazRvramde miRweva da azovis zRvamde gasvla uzarmazar samxedro da politikur dividends moutanda ukrainas. amjerad, ruseTi cdilobs, sakuTari Tavi ukrainaSi uryev zRuded da bastionad warmoadginos. Tuki ukrainam SeZlo da rusuli Tavdacva gaarRvia, es iqneba ruseTis dasasrulis dasawyisi.
– Tu ukraina am omSi ver gaimarjvebs (vgulisxmob okupirebuli teritoriebis deokupacias), dadgeba Tu ara zogadad, evropis usafrTxoeba kiTxvis qveS?
– aucileblad. 1945 wlis Semdeg pirveli warmatebuli dapyrobiTi omis precedenti iqneba evropis kontinentze, anu erTi saxelmwifosgan meore saxelmwifos nawilis warmatebiT dapyrobisa da amis SerCenisa. Tu es moxda, didi albaTobiT, gaixsneba Zveli Wrilobebi evropis kontinentze, pirvel rigSi balkaneTSi, Semdgom ki danarCen evropaSic.
– vxedavT imasac, rom ukrainuli armia mniSvnelovan zians ayenebs ruseTis flots Sav zRvaSi, am mxriv, oCamCireSi rusuli samxedro gemebis ganTavseba ra safrTxes Seicavs saqarTvelosTvis?
– okupirebul teritoriaze nebismieri aqtivoba da misi Sedegi okupantis braleulobaa. es saerTaSoriso samarTlebrivi normebiTac asea. Sesabamisad, rac unda moxdes, es okupanti Zalis brali iqneba, zogadad ki im agresoris samxedro flotis ganTavseba saqarTvelos teritoriaze, romelsac gamoucxadebeli omi aqvs saqarTvelosTan, Ria agresiis gagrZelebaa mis mimarT. da iribad Tuki vinme iTrevs saqarTvelos omSi, es swored ruseTia, Tumca omis faqtobrivad saqarTvelos kontrolirebad teritoriaze gadmosvlis Sansi praqtikulad, mainc minimaluri rCeba, magram oCamCireSi rusuli floti mxolod ukrainelTa samizned gaxdomis gamo ar aris saSiSi, aramed imitomac, rom es faqtobrivi aneqsiis dawyebis niSania.
– dasavlur presaSi iwereba imis Sesaxeb, rom ukrainaSi korufciaa, aseve, Sida politikuri dapirispirebac sagrZnobia, es yovelive ra safrTxes uqmnis ukrainas moklevadian da grZelvadian periodSi?
– ukraina udidesi SesaZleblobebis qveyanaa, romelic korufciam gamoxra. aTwleulebi grZeldeboda ase. axlac srulad araa korufcia daZleuli. Tuki korufcia damarcxdeba, ukrainis samxedro industrias warmatebis meti Sansi gauCndeba da resursebic ukeT ganawildeba. amasTan, arakorumpirebuli da samarTliani saxelmwifos dacva bevrad met moqalaqes uRirs, vidre sxvagvari saxelmwifosi.
– dabolos, dRevandeli ukrainisa da zogadad, msoflioSi mimdinare movlenebidan gamomdinare, rogoria saqarTvelos momavali?
– ruseTs saqarTvelosaTvis ar scalia. es dro Cven gaZlierebisaTvis da dasavlur organizaciebSi integraciisaTvis unda gamoviyenoT.