მამუკა არეშიძე: არ უნდა დავუშვათ აჭარაში დაბალანსებული ვითარების შეცვლა

irma cecxlaZe 577 20 45 63 –

saqarTvelos sami mezobeli qveyana SeiaraRebuli konfliqtis winaSe dgas. somxeT-azerbaijanis da TurqeT-israelis urTierTobebi am safrTxes aSkaras xdis. am Temaze gazeT `aWarasTan~ saubrobs politikis eqsperti mamuka areSiZe. igi, aseve, akomentarebs baTumSi mimdinare saprotesto aqciebs, romlis msvlelobis dros daapatimres gazeT `baTumelebis~ damfuZnebeli, Jurnalisti mzia amaRlobeli.

– rogorc msoflios ZiriTad geopolitikur sivrceebSi, amierkavkasiaSic balansi darRveulia. TamaSis wesebs aRarc msxvili da aRarc wvrili moTamaSeebi icaven. aqedan gamomdinare, yoveli maTgani cdilobs, rac SeiZleba ukeTesi mdgomareoba Seiqmnas im momentisTvis, rodesac daiwyeba msoflios axali wesrigis modelis Camoyalibeba, – acxadebs eqsperti. misi TqmiT: azerbaijani yvelaze Zlieri saxelmwifoa samxreT kavkasiaSi, rogorc ekonomikuri, ise samxedro-politikuri TvalsazrisiT, ris safuZvelzec miaCnia, rom aucileblad unda miiRos is, rac sWirdeba mocemul realobaSi. kerZod, saubaria 2021 wlis noemberSi dadebul yarabaRis omis Semdgom xelSekrulebaze. azerbaijanisTvis mniSvnelovania zangezuris koridoris sruli kontroli. es derefani gadis samxreT somxeTis teritoriaze da saxmeleTo gziT SeuZlia, daakavSiros TurqeTi azerbaijanTan. zemoT naxseneb dokumentSi ki bundovania is muxli, romelic exeba zangezurs, kerZod weria, rom es koridori unda gaakontrolos mesame qveyanam, Tumca romelma, ar aris dakonkretebuli. swored amis gamo aris atexili Widaoba msxvil da wvril moTamaSeebs Soris. ruseTs unda, Tavad gaakontrolos, igive pretenziebi aqvs TurqeTs, somxeTsac, cxadia, igive surs, azerbaijani ki ar Tmobs poziciebs. iq, aseve, mimdinareobs danarCeni sazRvris demarkaciis procesic, romelSic azerbaijani Zalian xistad iqceva. mokled rom vTqvaT, eqspertebis azriT, Tu somxeTma ar miiRo swori gadawyvetileba zangezuris koridoris Sesaxeb, maSin misi saxelmwifoebriobis sakiTxi msoflios dRis wesrigSi Zalian mwvaved dadgeba. saboloo jamSi, pasuxi kiTxvaze aseTia: dRes es sakvanZo Tema gaxda da Tu problemis mSvidobianad mogvarebaSi ar Caerivnen msxvili moTamaSeebi, ar moilaparakes erTmaneTSi, sakiTxi martivad rom ar gadawydeba – faqtia. aq safrangeTi ver wyvets verafers. marTalia, isic msxvil moTamaSed iTvleba, magram ver aris avtoriteti verc azerbaijanis da verc somxeTisTvis. avtoritetebad, am SemTxvevaSi, iTvleba mxolod anglosaqsuri qveynebi, xolo problemis mogvareba mxolod aSS-is da ruseTis garigebaze iqneba damokidebuli.

azerbaijanis prezidentma somxeTs `faSisturi saxelmwifo~ uwoda, rac nikol faSinianma eskalaciis SesaZlo muqarad aRiqva. . . am sakiTxTan dakavSirebiT mamuka areSiZe Tvlis:

– es teqsti gare moxmarebisTvis ufroa gamiznuli. somxeTis xelisufleba aranairi faSisturi reJimi ar aris. zogierT saxelmwifos ar awyobs zangezuris im principiT amuSaveba, rogorc dokumentSia, upirvelesad ki ruseTsa da irans. amitom alievis gancxadeba, rom `somxeTi faSisturi saxelmwifoa~ da is `safrTxea regionisTvis~ imas ukavSirdeba, rom mas surda, erTi mxriv, ruseTisTvis esiamovnebina, xolo, meore mxriv, gaefrTxilebina dasavleTi, rom ar Seurigdeba Seqmnil viTarebas da aucileblad gaagrZelebs zewolas, raTa miiRos zangezuris koridori. alievi im kategoriis politikosia, romelic kargad iyenebs aRmosavluri diplomatiis instrumentebs – ramdenime frontze erTdroulad TamaSobs.

mamuka areSiZe paralels avlebs TurqeTis liderTan:
– alievi erdoRans baZavs, es misi damaxasiaTebeli Tvisebaa, azerbaijanis meTauri cdilobs, igive meTodebi gamoiyenos da gamosdis kidec. alievi yovelTvis erTi nabijiT win aris, aswrebs geopolitikuri gamowvevis gaCenas. 2022 wels SearCia iseTi momenti, rodesac ruseTs ukrainaSi omis gamo ar ecala. amasTan, moskovi uaRresad gabrazebuli iyo faSinianis politikur narativze. Semdeg periodebSic is iseT nabijebs dgamda, rom nawyeni ruseTi azerbaijanisken mibrunebuliyo. magaliTad, putinis baqoSi bolo vizitis Semdeg azerbaijanma daiwyo rusuli energomatareblebis, rogorc azerbaijanulis, gatareba Tavis milebSi, maT Soris, saqarTvelos teritoriazec, energotrasebSi. Tumca or qveyanas Soris kuluaruli TanamSromloba ar aris mTlad sando. ruseTisTvis sasicocxlod mniSvnelovania CrdiloeT-samxreTis satransporto koridori, romelic peterburgidan indoeTSi, deliSi midis. es gza ramdenime¬ qveynis teritoriaze gadis, maT Soris azerbaijanis, ris gamoc,¬ rac dro gadis, azerbaijani Tavs situaciis makontroleblad grZnobs. am gzis farTomasStabiani amuSaveba uaxloesi momavlis sakiTxia, radgan cota xnis win xeli moaweres dokuments, romlis mixedviTac indoeTs xangrZlivi periodiT gadaeca erT-erTi iranuli porti, romelic CrdiloeT-samxreTis satransporto koridoris bolo wertili iqneba iranis teritoriaze da saidanac sazRvao marSrutiT tvirTi indoeTSi unda wavides. rodesac faSinianma politikuri aqtiuroba daiwyo, maSinve Canda, rom moskovs zurgs Seaqcevda. rac Seexeba kremls, ruseTis politika yovelTvis dafuZnebuli iyo Zalaze da ara Wkuaze. kremlisTvis mTavari iyo, mokavSire qveynebSi hyoloda Tavisi mTavroba, Tundac kacismkvleli da korufciaSi CaZiruli. sabolood, aman gamoiwvia is, rom jer gadaimtera qarTvelebi, mere somxebi, didi bzari gaaCina azerbaijanTan urTierTobaSi, bolos ki fexi amoikveTa samxreTkavkasiuri politikidan. axla ruseTi gaafTrebiT cdilobs dabrunebas. brZola mimdinareobs Zalian mniSvnelovani faqtorebis gamo – es aris Savi zRva, savaWro koridorebi da is resursebi, romlebic centralur aziaSia. ruseTi ar Seegueba, samxreT kavkasia TurqeTma rom gaakontrolos. rac ar unda aqtiuri iyos dRes erevanSi dasavleTi, mainc ver Seakavebs ruseTs, samxreT kavkasiaSi dabrundes diplomatiurad Tu samxedro ZaliT.

imaze, Tu ramdenad Seexeba saqarTvelos es konfliqti, eqsperti fiqrobs, rom saqarTvelo Zalian gaurkvevel situaciaSia, radgan, am etapze, xiluli mokavSire ar hyavs:
– vgulisxmob Zlier mokavSires. faqtia, rom arc aSS da arc ruseTi ase martivad saqarTvelos ar Seelevian, magram es imas ar niSnavs, rom romelimesTan xilul partniorul reJimSi varT, Tumca aqve vityvi, rom amerikis SeerTebul StatebTan partnioroba ar aris gawyvetili. isic gasaTvaliswinebelia, rom ekonomikurad saqarTvelo yvelaze sustia amierkavkasiaSi, rasac emateba dakarguli teritoriebi. aqedan gamomdinare, saqarTvelos mTavrobis axali iniciativa, samive qveyana CaerTos erTian ekonomikur sivrceSi gansakuTrebuli ekonomikuri TanamSrolobis formatiT, raTa Tavad izrunon regionis usafrTxoebaze, darCa xmad mRaRadeblisa udabnosa Sina. . . garda amisa, erTic unda gaviTvaliswinoT samomavlod, rom susti qveynis mimarT, Tu axla ara, Semdgom aucileblad gaCndeba teritoriuli Tu sxva saxis pretenziebi. Tu mtkice pozicia ar daafiqsire da sacecebi ar gamoaCine, rogorc wesi, mezoblebi moindomeben Seni sisustiT sargeblobas. es aris aqsioma, miT umetes – politikaSi. aqedan gamomdinare vaskvni, rom saqarTvelos mdgomareoba aris sakmaod rTuli, – ambobs eqsperti.

rac Seexeba trampis, inauguraciis Semdeg, gadawyvetilebebis molodins:

– velodebiT, radgan imiT, rac gaaJRera axali teritoriebis mierTebis Taobaze (grenlandia, kanada, panamis arxi), msofliosTvis saxifaTo garemos Seqmnas aanonsebs. yvelaferi zemoTqmulis realizebis SemTxvevaSi ki uaRresad rTuli gaxdeba zogierTi Cveni mezoblis SeCereba, radgan yvela imoqmedebs deviziT: `rac misTvis SeiZleba, me vin amikrZalavs?~ aq me ruseTi vigulisxme, magram arc is unda dagvaviwydes, rom azerbaijanSi eqspertebis da mediis doneze aqtiurad ganixileba sakiTxi, ratom ar unda iyos samxreT azerbaijani didi azerbaijanis SemadgenlobaSi, anu iranis azerbaijanzea aq laparaki, rac iranTan, qalaq Tavrizze pretenzias ukavSirdeba. amitom daiZaba am or saxelmwifos Soris viTareba, amitom aris Teirani calsaxad somxeTis mxares da zangezuris koridorze azerbaijan-TurqeTis kontrols maqsimalurad ewinaaRmdegeba, – gviTxra mamuka areSiZem.

eqsperti gvesaubreba TurqeT-israelis savaraudo konfliqtzec:

– TurqeTi maqsimalurad cdilobs siriaze kontrolis aRdgenas. am termins iyenebs Turquli mediis nacionalisturi nawili im konteqstSi, rom xdeba osmaluri imperiis gavlenis aRdgena, rac erdoRanis xelisuflebaSi mosvlisTanave pirvelive mTavari gzavnili iyo. am SemTxvevaSi ar igulisxmeboda teritoriebis dakaveba, mxolod kontrolze hqonda saubari. siria, Tu gaxsovT, osmaleTis imperiis SemadgenlobaSi Sedioda. dRes TurqeTi, praqtikulad, akontrolebs CrdiloeT siriis did nawils da surs ufro meti, radgan siriis Crdilo-aRmosvleTiT ganlagebulia amerikelebis mier mxardaWerili qurTuli samxedro kontingenti, romelTanac gamwarebuli omobs. ukve kargad Cans, rom TurqeTi Rrmad Caeflo siriis problemebSi. SesaZloa, xelovnuradac moxda didi resursis Caxarjva siriaSi, riTac gazarda gavlena am regionSi. yvelaferi es aaxloebs erdoRans israelis interesebis sferosTan. ukve aSkarad Cans, rom, raRac momentSi, TurqeTi pirispir aRmoCndeba israelTan, romelic amJamad akontrolebs siriis samxreTs. amasTan, damaskoSi zis TurqeTis mier xeldasxmuli islamisturi organizaciis xelmZRvaneloba, romlis warmoCenas dasavleTi cdilobs zomier islamistebad. sxvaTa Soris, termini `zomieri islamisti~ aris idiotizmi. islamisti an aris, an ar aris, zomieri is veranairad ver iqneba. aqedan vaskvni, rom dasavleTi, rogorc yovelTvis, axlac wamgebian TamaSs TamaSobs axlo aRmosvleTSi, saxelebis darqmeviT cdilobs Secvalos is Sinaarsi, romlis Secvlac warmoudgenelia. . . mokled, rodesac TurqeTi aRmoCdeba israelis pirispir, ukve gasagebia, amas rac mohyveba – TuqeTi ar dauSvebs israelis dominirebas siriaSi.

ra moxdeba, Tu trampi Caereva amierkavkasiis politikaSi? – eqsperti Tvlis, rom:
– aSS-is axali administraciis interesebi Tu SenarCunda Savi zRvis da samxreT kavkasiis mimarT, azerbaijani somxeTTan SeiaraRebul konfliqts ver gabedavs, magram aravin icis, trampi ras gadawyvets. igi xan erTs ambobs, xan – meores. jer acxadebs, rom koncentrirebuli iqneba amerikis kontinentis usafrTxoebasa da Sida problemebis mogvarebaze teritoriebis mierTebis gziT, ukrainis omis dasrulebazec saubrobs, magram taivanis problema gadawia ukana planze. . . ramdenime dRis win axal administraciaSi ukve moxda seriozuli konfliqti globalistebsa da izolacionistebs Soris. ilon maski da danarCenebi Selaparakdnen, amerika unda iyos izolaciur mdgomareobaSi sakuTari problemebis mosagvareblad, Tu globaluri politika unda gaagrZelos. ise iCxubes, xeliT kinaRam Seexnen erTmaneTs. . .

rac Seexeba baTumSi aqciis monawileTa dakavebas da imas, rom mzia amaRlobels policielisTvis silis gawvnis gamo 4-dan 7 wlamde patimroba emuqreba, mamuka areSiZe acxadebs:
– mzia amaRlobelma Caidina danaSauli. . . magram vici, maSin iq ra xdeboda, vici procesis mTeli anatomia, aqedan gamomdinare, saxelmwifos ar unda daeSva im muxlis miyeneba, romelic miuyenes. ufro msubuqad unda midgomodnen. unda gaeTvaliswinebinaT misi qmedeba im konteqstSi, rac dafiqsirda. vgulisxmob mzias disSvilebis daWeras, fizikur Sexebas, sityvier Seuracxyofebs da sxv. anu aq udidesi mniSvneloba aqvs konteqsts. . . zogadad, vTvli, rom baTumSi samoqalaqo da politikuri dapirispirebebis daSveba arafriT ar SeiZleba regionis specifikurobidan gamomdinare. politikuri garCevebis centri aris Tbilisi, xolo regionis qalaqebSi unda SevecadoT, es procesebi ufro konstruqciul reJimSi mimdinareobdes. sityva `specifikuri~ SemTxveviT ar gamoviyene. . . me ar vxsni frCxilebs da ar vyvebi, vis ra inetresebi aqvs konkretulad aWaris mimarT, magram isic faqtia, rom ar unda davuSvaT aWaraSi dabalansebuli viTarebis Secvla. es unda gaiTvaliswinon rogorc regionis politikurma liderebma, ise Tbilisis pozicia/opoziciis politelitam da aqciebis rigiTma monawileebma. aq sasworze devs Cveni saxelmwifos bed-iRbali da ara konkretuli politikuri jgufis interesebi. istoriulad mogvdgams, saqarTveloSi arsebuli daZabulobiT yovelTvis sargeblobda sxva qveyana. . . axlac igive iqneba. me ara mxolod Zaladobis, im sazizRrobis winaaRmdegic var, rac qveyanaSi zogadad trialebs. vgulisxmob im uzarmazar negatiur fons, fsiqologiur dramas, romelic Cven Tvalwin yalibdeba. am doneze gaxleCili saqarTvelo ar maxsovs 1991 wlis Semdeg, rasac maSin uamravi qarTvelis daRupva mohyva. me samoqalaqo oms ar vprognozireb, vaSiSvleb im umZimes fsiqologiur mdgomareobas, romelSic mTeli eri aRmoCnda: ojaxebi, samegobro, sanaTesao ikargeba, erTmaneTs ar elaparakebian, Tu mimarTaven, mxolod ginebiT. socialurma qselebma mWidro urTierTobis saSualeba misca kacobriobas, Tumca manve warmoqmna lanZRvis, ginebis, Seuracxyofis ena, romelic absoluturad damRupvelia saxelmwifosTvis. arada, swored es mimarTvebi figurirebs dRes saqarTveloSi socialuri qselis meSveobiT, rac eris udidesi tragediaa da Zalian cudad mogvibrundeba uaxloes periodSi.